Situation.
Manufacturer assessing entry into a national market with an approximately EUR 3bn tender pipeline over five years.
Market entry.
Global rolling stock manufacturer
Challenge.
Entry economics depended on 40–50% local-content requirements, two entrenched incumbents and a realistic win rate well below the internal assumption.
What we did.
Assessed the market, competitors and greenfield, partnership and acquisition options, and developed a bid strategy with go/no-go criteria.
The outcome.
Partnership entry was recommended over greenfield with approximately EUR 40m lower capital requirement. Bid selectivity criteria were set at a modelled 25–30% win rate.
Anonymised engagement. Figures are approximate. Targets, assessed potential, approved programmes and realised results are described separately in the outcome. Converted amounts use ECB reference rates dated 18 September 2026, rounded to two significant figures.
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