Situation.
Operator with approximately EUR 890m revenue and a rolling stock programme of approximately EUR 890m in committed capital.
Fleet investment project review.
Passenger rail operator
Challenge.
The business case relied on demand growth, availability and residual-value assumptions set three years earlier and not retested against current cost and delivery conditions.
What we did.
Conducted an independent review, tested sensitivities in the binding assumptions and revised the decision basis.
The outcome.
The case showed an approximately EUR 130m NPV swing across the realistic assumption range. Three decision-critical assumptions were identified, with mitigations defined before the next tranche.
Anonymised engagement. Figures are approximate. Targets, assessed potential, approved programmes and realised results are described separately in the outcome. Converted amounts use ECB reference rates dated 18 September 2026, rounded to two significant figures.
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